The Next Chapter for New Orleans: NOMAR CID Forecast Symposium spotlights the impact of AI, new construction and mayor-elect

Advances in AI technology, major new construction, and New Orleans’ new mayor-elect are ushering in compelling opportunities for professionals in the industry amidst the many challenges the area has faced over the past year.

The overarching theme of the 15th Annual Economic & Real Estate Forecast Symposium hosted by the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of REALTORS® Commercial Investment Division (NOMAR CID) was “Breaking Ground: The Emergence of a New Economy”. The premier event boasted over 450 attendees, more than 40 sponsoring businesses from across the region, and speakers from numerous disciplines sharing the latest industry data and anecdotal experience. Symposium attendees gleaned a helpful glimpse into the big picture of the New Orleans market and important changes that are in the works.

Several projects of considerable size are poised to impact the ten-parish NOMAR region in the coming years. Shell Oil broke ground earlier this year on a new vertical, Class A office building that will serve as a headquarters for the company. As the first Class A office tower to be built in New Orleans since 1989, this major undertaking is forecast to breathe new life into the River District of New Orleans.

The plan for Omni Hotels & Resorts’ new $590 million hotel beside the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center has continued to take shape, with construction expected to begin in 2026.  Tulane University has also been working to push forward plans for the revitalization of the historic Charity Hospital building on Tulane Ave., with hopes to feature state-of-the-art laboratories, classrooms, retail, dining, and more. This project is expected to drive up the city’s economy and produce a plethora of new jobs.

The Louisiana International Terminal (LIT) project in St. Bernard Parish and Venture Global’s LNG export facility in Plaquemines Parish are two more large-scale projects that are projected to provide economic boosts to the area. In Richland Parish, in Northern Louisiana, Meta has laid out plans to build a data center that could place Louisiana at the forefront of the emerging AI tech revolution. While the construction does not sit within the NOMAR region, the ripple effect it could have may have major implications on how outside investors view Louisiana and its potential.

“There are two trends in the world right now that Louisiana is incredibly well-positioned for. One is that the demand for energy to fuel AI is going to keep going up because a single ChatGPT search takes approximately 17x the amount of energy a Google search takes. At the same time, the need for energy that has a lower carbon footprint will continue unabated,” said Michael Hecht, President & CEO of GNO, Inc. “In Louisiana, we have access to low-cost natural gas, and we utilize carbon capture sequestration (CCS), which reduces carbon emissions in the atmosphere. We have the infrastructure, natural land formations like salt domes, and the expertise to do so.”

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Changes on the political front are also predicted to impact the NOMAR region’s real estate market. This past Saturday, Helena Moreno won the mayoral election for the city of New Orleans, and there is much speculation about how the shift in administration will impact the area. Notably, one of Moreno’s campaign highlights was an emphasis on implementing economic growth in New Orleans East—an area that has suffered long-term devastation since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Contractors and developers are also optimistic that the new administration will address the failures of the city’s permitting systems, leading to greater interest in investments from builders outside of New Orleans.

“I have never been more encouraged than I am today,” said Mike Sherman, Founder & Executive Counsel of Sherman Strategies. “Wherever you stand with the election, I think there’s a reason to be optimistic. There is a renewed energy.”

Insights on Residential Market

Regarding the residential side of the market, essential insights were shared by Gary Wagner, Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Eminent Scholar Endowed Chair in Economics at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.

“I think the main take away from this particular year is that what’s become a housing affordability issue is now turning into an excess inventory issue. If we went back to a typical September from 2013-2019, we would have about 4600 residential homes for sale in the NOMAR region. Right now, we are at about 7600,” Wagner said.

“Housing affordability has really shifted with the interest rate environment changing a couple of years ago and remaining high—with the 30-year mortgage rate remaining somewhere around 6.8%,” continued Wagner. “We are seeing inventory levels much higher than what we typically see, and it has flipped the market from more of a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market.”

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in September, providing a little relief and signaled two more potential interest rate cuts in 2025. However, the nation is still a long way from the 3% interest rates that fueled the real estate market a few years ago. Wagner speculates that price increases will remain modest for the next couple of years, and that buyers will begin to adjust to the new interest rate environment.

Wagner also highlighted that the effects of increases to the region’s flood insurance premiums have not appeared as far-reaching as he initially expected. Insurance premiums have been decreasing this past year, providing relief.

“So far, it doesn’t look like the revisions to flood insurance are having a significant effect on home buyers. There may be some pockets of the population where that might be true,” said Wagner. “I was a lot more concerned about that a few years back and how people would react. But it hasn’t had quite the negative effect I had anticipated. It’s certainly not a positive thing for the region, but It’s not as bad as what I thought could happen.”

Resets in Retail and Areas of Growth

In terms of retail, the NOMAR region has been experiencing success, especially in consolidated commercial corridors such as Veterans Memorial Boulevard in Metairie, along with other mixed-use centers across the region. Kirsten Early, Partner/Director of Retail at SRSA Real Estate, spoke to how national retail closures in the area, such as Party City, Big Lots, and Starbucks, are restoring big box spaces to the market.

“It’s not a retreat, it’s a reset,” said Early, who was optimistic about the opportunities the vacancies present.

According to Early, new growth categories to be on the lookout for are quick service restaurants, fitness, discount and value stores (TJ Maxx, Marshalls, etc.), grocery stores, and other major brands, all of which help to produce steady traffic for neighborhoods and multi-use centers.

AI’s Emerging Role in the Industry

The implications of AI on the real estate industry were a major element in many of the panels and presentations throughout the course of the day. On the panel, “What do the lenders say?”, several bank executives spoke to the use of AI in underwriting loans. While the amount of usage varies across companies, the consensus is that AI will become an everyday fixture for all involved in the real estate industry.

With AI, everything from virtual home viewings to instantaneously assessing a buyer’s assets for loan approval is on the table, and in the final session of the day, Guy Williams, President & CEO of Gulf Coast Bank & Trust Company, encouraged attendees to try the different AI models and become familiar with the tools they provide.

“Every technological advance has increased the standard of living—steam engines, steel, computers. AI is going to improve prosperity around the world,” said Williams. “This is a train you have to get on board with, or you will be left behind.”